Project 2025 and Trump's Re-election: Analysis of H-1B Visa Prospects for International Students
This article outlines H-1B provisions in the conservative think tank's Project 2025, including reducing the quota, raising wage requirements, shifting to a merit-based selection system, and tightening employer oversight, and analyzes their potential impact on international students seeking U.S. employment. It also reviews changes in H-1B denial rates and OPT processing during Trump's presidency and introduces alternatives such as Day 1 CPT. Note that the project has not been approved and implementation depends on future political and legislative processes.
In recent years, the Republican Party's conservative stance on immigration has become increasingly pronounced. With Trump taking office, international students and graduates are expected to face significant obstacles in staying and working in the U.S. Before the election, a right-wing think tank released "Project 2025" to support Trump's position on immigration. Through the provisions listed in the project, we can glimpse what international students will face after Trump takes office.
Simply put, he will make the already hard-to-get H-1B even more "rare."
In this policy document provided by the right-wing think tank for presidential candidate Trump, it is stated that they will:
- Reduce the number of H-1B visas: Shrink the current H-1B visa quota of 85,000 to gradually reduce America's dependence on foreign workers.
- Raise wage requirements: Employers will need to offer foreign employees higher salaries than the current H-1B minimum wage requirement, aiming to limit startups and small businesses from hiring international talent.
- "Merit-based selection": The H-1B lottery rules may shift to a "merit-based" system, prioritizing candidates with more experience, higher degrees, and the ability to negotiate higher salaries from employers.
- Stricter employer oversight: Project 2025 proposes stricter scrutiny of companies hiring foreign employees, increasing paperwork and review processes, aiming to make U.S. companies less inclined to choose the option of "hiring foreign employees" by lengthening the hiring cycle.
Impact on International Students
If these changes are implemented, the path for international students to stay in the U.S. after graduation will be clouded. For international students who have just graduated and lack work experience, opportunities will be significantly reduced. A decrease in the number of H-1B visas will intensify competition, and higher wage requirements will make job opportunities at startups and small businesses harder to obtain. Moreover, under the "merit-based" principle, even companies still willing to invest heavily in hiring foreigners will only hire international students with several years of work experience. After all, nearly 80% of applicants fail the H-1B lottery each year, and H-1B candidates with work experience are never in short supply. Tightened policies will lead to an oversupply in the foreign employee job market, ultimately creating a situation where the new wave cannot push the old wave forward and sinks into the hopeless sea of the lottery.
Although Project 2025 has not yet been approved, it has become part of the immigration reform discussion before the 2024 presidential election. Its implementation timeline will depend on the political situation and legislative process in the coming year.
Why Should You Take This Seriously?
If you are not yet convinced, take a look at the impact of immigration policies on international students during Trump's presidency several years ago. During those four years:
- H-1B visa denial rates soared: In 2020, during Trump's presidency, the denial rate for initial H-1B visa applications surged to 13%, while in 2015 under Democratic administration, this figure was only 6%.
- OPT and STEM OPT approval rates plummeted: STEM graduates also faced challenges with OPT extensions. Processing delays put many international students in the legal predicament of losing status, with 43% of STEM OPT students' applications experiencing long waits.
Other Solutions
You can also take the following actions to stay on your path to remain in the U.S.:
1. Reject information barriers: Stay updated on current affairs, understand how various changes in U.S. domestic policies will affect your future, and prepare in advance.
2. Consult immigration experts: Proactively reach out to immigration lawyers or consultants who specialize in student visas and academic immigration. They can help you explore other pathways, such as Day 1 CPT, or other visa or green card categories, including O1, L1, NIW, etc.
Day 1 CPT: The Most Practical Alternative to H1B
Given the uncertainty surrounding H-1B visas, Day 1 CPT offers a valuable alternative for international students. Day 1 CPT allows you to work while pursuing a degree, gaining practical experience without relying on the H-1B lottery. It can enable you to:
- Immediate work authorization: You can start working from the first day of enrollment, gaining experience while studying. Some programs even allow CPT work authorization up to 30 days before the program starts. This allows you to seamlessly transition from OPT to CPT if you are not selected in the H1B lottery.
- No lottery required: Unlike the H-1B visa, Day 1 CPT has no cap or lottery system, so you don't have to compete for limited spots.
- Flexibility: It is not tied to an employer. As long as the new job aligns with your program of study, you can change jobs at any time.
- Long-term career advantage: By gaining practical experience during your studies, you will become a more competitive candidate for future H-1B visas or other work visas.
